伯南克：不排除中国经济存在硬着陆的可能性

　　(Can't Rule Out China Hard Landing: Bernanke)

　　据周五获得的美联储(Federal Reserve)主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)信件披露的看法是，中国发生经济危机的机会很低，但经济硬着陆(“hard landing”for the economy)的可能性不能排除。

　　伯南克于8月30日在给美参议院银行业委员会主席Richard Shelby的信函中称，在可预见的未来，我们相信中国经济危机的机会非常低。尽管中国银行业贷款规模，甚至在可能有问题贷款增加的情形下不断扩大，但中国政府拥有大量资源(sizable resources)，并不可能让银行体系崩溃。他还称，中国政府所掌控的大量外汇储备也不可能使货币危机发生。

　　他在信中还称，因管理当局试图降低当前快速增长的投资，因而我们并不能完全排除中国经济未来可能会出现以极缓慢增长形式的硬着陆的可能性。

　　伯南克还称，中国投资快速增长正导致一些工业产能过剩，并有可能增加银行已出现的坏帐数量。

　　WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a letter obtained on Friday that chances of an economic crisis in China were low, but that the possibility of a ``hard landing'' for the economy could not be dismissed.

　　``We believe that the chance of a Chinese economic crisis is very low for the foreseeable future,'' Bernanke wrote in a August 30 letter to Senate Banking Committee Chairman Richard Shelby.

　　``Although the banking sector is burdened with an enormous and probably growing stock of problematic loans, the government possesses sizable resources and is unlikely to allow the banking system to fail,'' Bernanke told the Alabama Republican. He also said Beijing's large foreign exchange reserves made a currency crisis unlikely.

　　``However, we do not entirely discount the possibility of a 'hard landing,' in the form of significantly slower growth, as authorities attempt to reduce investment growth from its current rapid pace,'' he wrote.

　　The Fed chief said the rapid pace of investment in China was leading to overcapacity in some industries and likely adding to bad loans already on bank books.

　　``However, there is less evidence of widespread overheating. Inflation is still quite low,'' he added.

　　Bernanke said Beijing had indicated it wanted to rein in the pace of investment spending and reduce its reliance on export-led growth.

　　``They have taken some steps to try to encourage consumption. However, they still have not allowed a substantial appreciation of the renminbi (currency), a step that many analysts argue would be the most effective way to address the imbalances in the economy,'' he said.

　　U.S. manufacturers complain an undervalued renminbi, or yuan, gives Chinese producers an unfair advantage in global markets and the Bush administration has pressed China to rely more on market forces to determine the value of the currency.

　　Bernanke's letter, which came in response to written questions Shelby submitted in conjunction with a July 19 Senate Banking Committee hearing on the U.S. economy, was made available by the senator's office.